Market on Debt Default Risk
Higher (a lot) than 2011.
Source: Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa (Goldman Sachs, May 1, 2023).
They write “…at this point, we still think the Treasury is more likely than not to be able to pay all of its bills until late July without an increase in the debt limit.
However, there is a good chance that the Treasury’s cash balance will dip as low as $25-30bn for a few days in June.”
Yellen says June 1 is a possible x-date. CBO says sometime in June is not unlikely.